Dr. Loice Achieng Ombajo, a senior lecturer in the Department of Medicine, at the University of Nairobi, talks about the state of COVID-19 in Kenya in an interview with the Daily Nation.

What’s your assessment of Kenya’s levels of infections, recoveries and mortalities? Is the curve progressing as per the initial models?

The initial models were of a worst case scenario, and on assumption of nothing being done to curb the spread. If nothing had been done, we would probably have several thousand confirmed cases by now. However, we took some measures, such as closing schools, churches and banning gatherings. With these measures, we made significant gains in the fight against Covid-19. In one country, the first two cases were in a church. One of them went to a family gathering. One of the people in that gathering went to another church and that just set off outbreaks. Contact tracing was another step, because we’ve seen that when one case interacts with five people, two of them may get the infection. These two go on to interact with 10 other people and before long, the infections snowball.

So the stringent measures put in place in the first instance have helped us to be where we are now. Going forward we probably will see more cases. It will get a little worse before it finally gets better.